25 lines
2.4 KiB
Markdown
25 lines
2.4 KiB
Markdown
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# Q&A / Analysis — 2b. Returns if Sold in 3 / 6 / 10 Years
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**Assumptions:** buy at CHF 625'000, 20% down (CHF 125'000) + ~CHF 2'000 buyer costs, 80% mortgage amortized CHF 6'250/yr. On sale: broker ~2.5% and **Basel-Stadt real-estate gains tax (Grundstückgewinnsteuer)** on the profit — **high for short holdings, falling the longer you hold** (modelled ≈ 40% at 3y, 28% at 6y, 20% at 10y of the taxable gain). Three price-growth paths on the flat's value. Figures are **estimates**, exclude interior modernization spend, and exclude the annual carrying cost / avoided rent discussed on the previous page.
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### Net cash returned to you at sale, and gain on the equity you invested
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| Hold | Growth path | Est. sale price | Selling costs + gains tax | Net cash out | Gain on equity |
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|------|-------------|----------------:|--------------------------:|-------------:|---------------:|
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| **3y** | Conservative 1.0%/yr | 643'900 | 17'200 | 145'500 | **−300** |
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| | Base 2.0%/yr | 663'300 | 25'300 | 156'800 | **+11'000** |
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| | Optimistic 3.5%/yr | 692'900 | 37'600 | 174'100 | **+28'400** |
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| **6y** | Conservative 1.0%/yr | 663'500 | 22'700 | 178'200 | **+13'700** |
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| | Base 2.0%/yr | 703'900 | 34'700 | 206'600 | **+42'100** |
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| | Optimistic 3.5%/yr | 768'300 | 53'900 | 251'800 | **+87'300** |
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| **10y** | Conservative 1.0%/yr | 690'400 | 26'900 | 226'000 | **+36'500** |
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| | Base 2.0%/yr | 761'900 | 42'600 | 281'800 | **+92'300** |
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| | Optimistic 3.5%/yr | 881'600 | 69'000 | 375'200 | **+185'700** |
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**How to read this**
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- **3 years — don't.** Transaction costs + the steep short-hold gains tax eat almost all appreciation. You roughly break even at best; a flat/soft market loses money. Selling this soon means you also carry the building renovation risk without time to benefit.
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- **6 years — modest.** You clear costs and build a real equity cushion in the base case; the amortization (CHF 37'500 repaid) does much of the work. Reasonable if you also lived in it (avoided rent ≈ CHF 24k+/yr is the bigger "return").
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- **10 years — this is the horizon that pays.** Lower gains tax, ~CHF 62'500 mortgage repaid, appreciation compounding, and the façade/roof renovation completed (condition upgraded). Base case ~+CHF 92k of equity gain **plus** ~a decade of rent avoided.
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**Bottom line:** as a home to live in for **6–10+ years, financially sound**; as a **short-term flip, poor**. The real return of this purchase is avoided rent + forced saving, not price speculation.
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