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- pages/: one Markdown file per PDF page (cover/description p.1-8, all scanned STWEG documents & Reglement p.20-80, contact p.81), vision-OCR'd German financial/legal tables kept verbatim with Swiss number format. - pages/page-82..85: English Q&A — property summary, first-home cost/return evaluation (sold in 3/6/10y), risks & why price is below market. - dossier.md + plaindoc.css: Marp source (A4, default styling). - Dokumentation-Muellheimerstrasse55.pdf: rendered 71-page A4 document. - Includes source PDF.
2.4 KiB
2.4 KiB
Q&A / Analysis — 2b. Returns if Sold in 3 / 6 / 10 Years
Assumptions: buy at CHF 625'000, 20% down (CHF 125'000) + ~CHF 2'000 buyer costs, 80% mortgage amortized CHF 6'250/yr. On sale: broker ~2.5% and Basel-Stadt real-estate gains tax (Grundstückgewinnsteuer) on the profit — high for short holdings, falling the longer you hold (modelled ≈ 40% at 3y, 28% at 6y, 20% at 10y of the taxable gain). Three price-growth paths on the flat's value. Figures are estimates, exclude interior modernization spend, and exclude the annual carrying cost / avoided rent discussed on the previous page.
Net cash returned to you at sale, and gain on the equity you invested
| Hold | Growth path | Est. sale price | Selling costs + gains tax | Net cash out | Gain on equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3y | Conservative 1.0%/yr | 643'900 | 17'200 | 145'500 | −300 |
| Base 2.0%/yr | 663'300 | 25'300 | 156'800 | +11'000 | |
| Optimistic 3.5%/yr | 692'900 | 37'600 | 174'100 | +28'400 | |
| 6y | Conservative 1.0%/yr | 663'500 | 22'700 | 178'200 | +13'700 |
| Base 2.0%/yr | 703'900 | 34'700 | 206'600 | +42'100 | |
| Optimistic 3.5%/yr | 768'300 | 53'900 | 251'800 | +87'300 | |
| 10y | Conservative 1.0%/yr | 690'400 | 26'900 | 226'000 | +36'500 |
| Base 2.0%/yr | 761'900 | 42'600 | 281'800 | +92'300 | |
| Optimistic 3.5%/yr | 881'600 | 69'000 | 375'200 | +185'700 |
How to read this
- 3 years — don't. Transaction costs + the steep short-hold gains tax eat almost all appreciation. You roughly break even at best; a flat/soft market loses money. Selling this soon means you also carry the building renovation risk without time to benefit.
- 6 years — modest. You clear costs and build a real equity cushion in the base case; the amortization (CHF 37'500 repaid) does much of the work. Reasonable if you also lived in it (avoided rent ≈ CHF 24k+/yr is the bigger "return").
- 10 years — this is the horizon that pays. Lower gains tax, ~CHF 62'500 mortgage repaid, appreciation compounding, and the façade/roof renovation completed (condition upgraded). Base case ~+CHF 92k of equity gain plus ~a decade of rent avoided.
Bottom line: as a home to live in for 6–10+ years, financially sound; as a short-term flip, poor. The real return of this purchase is avoided rent + forced saving, not price speculation.